SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

1. FC Magdeburg

I. Lidberg 11'

C. Krempicki 48'

L. Burcu 22'

9/28/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 7Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9847%

×Draw21%

1. FC Magdeburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this match1. FC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.69

SV Darmstadt 98

2.06

1. FC Magdeburg

1.69

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.23

creates per match

2.11

1.27

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.23

1. FC Magdeburg

2.11

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.27

1. FC Magdeburg

1.89

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.35scores less

1. FC Magdeburg+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

68%

SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Magdeburg

79%

Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg

53%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

27%

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

87%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

61%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

34%

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

82%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

50%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

59%

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 8 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.23 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.06

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.11 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

47%

level

21%

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

32%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Burcu

1. FC Magdeburg · F

8.9

Match Events

11'

I. Lidberg

17'

Andreas Müller

22'

L. Burcu↳ M. El Hankouri

41'

Marcus Mathisen

48'

C. Krempicki↳ L. Burcu

60'

P. Förster← F. Hornby

60'

F. Lakenmacher← I. Lidberg

60'

A. Nollenberger← P. Hercher

66'

Kai Klefisch

66'

Jean Hugonet

67'

Bryan Teixeira← X. Amaechi

67'

T. Ito← L. Burcu

71'

Alexander Nollenberger

73'

Marcus Mathisen

73'

Marcus Mathisen

76'

F. Nürnberger← K. Corredor

76'

M. Papela← L. Marseiler

80'

F. Michel← C. Krempicki

80'

A. Hoti← S. Gnaka

82'

Tatsuya Ito

87'

T. Kempe← Guille Bueno

90+5'

Philipp Förster

90+4'

Tobias Kempe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SV1.

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots11

8Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked6

11Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

368Total Passes530

281Accurate Passes459

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls15

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1