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SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
10/19/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 9Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9847%
×Draw21%
1. FC Magdeburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Darmstadt 98
2.06
1. FC Magdeburg
1.69

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98
2.23
1. FC Magdeburg
2.11

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98
1.27
1. FC Magdeburg
1.89

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.35scores less
1. FC Magdeburg+0.11scores more

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw
68%
SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Magdeburg
79%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
53%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
27%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
87%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
61%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
34%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
82%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
50%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
59%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 8 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.23 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.06

1. FC Magdeburg attack 2.11 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
47%
level
21%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
32%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. Reimann1. FC Magdeburg1. FC Magdeburg · G
8.3

Match Events

20'
Falko Michel
39'
Sergio López
65'
R. Ghrieb← L. Ulrich
73'
M. Papela← M. Richter
74'
C. Krempicki← F. Michel
74'
M. Breunig← A. Holmstrom
82'
Sergio López
82'
Sergio López
85'
M. Bader← K. Corredor
85'
B. Bialek← I. Lidberg
90+2'
S. Loric← A. Nollenberger
90+2'
N. Pesch← P. Hercher

Possession

37%SV

Shots

11SV

Pass accuracy

47%SV

Statistics

SV1.
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots13
1Corners5
15Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots13
6On Target2
4Off Target7
1Blocked4
7Inside Box6
4Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
315Total Passes525
242Accurate Passes463
77%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 1. FC Magdeburg

SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 19, 2025.

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in Darmstadt.