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1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
F. Nurnberger 62' (OG)
F. Nurnberger 67'
3/13/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg48%
×Draw24%
SV Darmstadt 9828%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26

1. FC Magdeburg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.60
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.04
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.51scores less
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
72%
1. FC Magdeburg or SV Darmstadt 98
76%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
52%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
26%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
82%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
51%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
24%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
72%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
36%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
63%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.04 · 11 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.60 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
48%
level
24%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
28%

1. FC Magdeburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
D. Stalmach1. FC Magdeburg1. FC Magdeburg · M
7.9

Match Events

31'
Isac Lidberg
46'
Barış Atik
58'
F. Nurnberger← F. Holland
59'
M. Papela← N. Schmidt
62'
F. NurnbergerOwn goal
67'
F. Nurnberger↳ M. Papela
77'
L. Musonda← R. Ghrieb
78'
F. Lakenmacher← M. Richter
81'
Dariusz Stalmach
83'
S. Gnaka← D. Stalmach
84'
A. Holmstrom← M. Zukowski
87'
Tobias Müller
90+1'
N. Pesch← P. Hercher
90+1'
S. Guler← L. Marseiler

Possession

57%1.

Shots

171.

Pass accuracy

52%1.

Statistics

1.SV
Overview
57%Possession43%
17Total Shots10
1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.60
8Corners1
6Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots10
4On Target3
7Off Target3
6Blocked4
10Inside Box6
7Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
491Total Passes372
397Accurate Passes279
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.16Goals Prevented-0.16
Discipline
6Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Darmstadt 98

1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 13, 2026.

Goals: F. Nurnberger (62' o.g., 67').

1. FC Magdeburg controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.