1. FC Magdeburg 4–1 SV Darmstadt 98: Result & Stats

1. FC Magdeburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SV Darmstadt 98

M. Kaars 81'

A. El-Zein 78'

L. Burcu 73'

X. Amaechi 56'

F. Hornby 29'

3/2/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 24Avnet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg48%

×Draw24%

SV Darmstadt 9828%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC MagdeburgExpected goals in this matchSV Darmstadt 98

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.26

1. FC Magdeburg

1.71

SV Darmstadt 98

1.26

1. FC Magdeburg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.60

creates per match

1.48

1.04

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.60

SV Darmstadt 98

1.48

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg

1.04

SV Darmstadt 98

1.82

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg-0.51scores less

SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw

72%

1. FC Magdeburg or SV Darmstadt 98

76%

Draw or SV Darmstadt 98

52%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

26%

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

82%

1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

51%

1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

72%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

36%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

63%

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.04 · 11 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.60 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more

48%

level

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

28%

1. FC Magdeburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1. FC Magdeburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

L. Burcu

1. FC Magdeburg · F

9.2

Match Events

23'

Jean-Paul Boëtius

28'

Matej Maglica

29'

F. Hornby↳ J. Boëtius

36'

45+3'

46'

56'

60'

60'

61'

C. Krempicki← X. Amaechi

73'

L. Burcu↳ A. Nollenberger

74'

A. El-Zein← L. Burcu

76'

Tobias Kempe

76'

M. Drešković← M. Maglica

78'

A. El-Zein↳ M. El Hankouri

81'

M. Kaars

83'

F. Lakenmacher← I. Lidberg

84'

L. Marseiler← K. Corredor

84'

M. Thiede← Sergio López

86'

P. Pfeiffer← M. El Hankouri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.SV

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots14

12Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots14

10On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

497Total Passes322

428Accurate Passes237

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4