Start 0–3 Lillestrom: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lillestrom

H. Woxen 86'

F. Elkaer 76'

L. Ranger 43'

7/26/2025

1. Division · Round 14Sparebanken Norge Arena Kristiansand

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Start29%

×Draw23%

Lillestrom48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.87

Start

1.40

Lillestrom

1.87

Lillestrom creates 34% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 30 away

2.00

creates per match

2.30

1.44

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Start

2.00

Lillestrom

2.30

allows per match

Start

1.44

Lillestrom

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Start or draw

52%

Start or Lillestrom

77%

Draw or Lillestrom

71%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

13%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

75%

Start 2+ goals

41%

Start 3+ goals

17%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

85%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

56%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

37%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Lillestrom defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lillestrom attack 2.30 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Start scores more

29%

level

23%

Lillestrom scores more

48%

Lillestrom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Gono← T. Benjamin

18'

E. Gono

43'

L. Ranger↳ S. Drammeh

45+2'

48'

55'

62'

64'

F. Elkaer← K. Tonnesen

64'

H. Woxen← G. Asen

67'

H. Woxen

72'

M. Soomets← E. Schulze

72'

S. Sjokvist← M. Ugland

76'

F. Elkaer↳ M. Karlsbakk

86'

H. Woxen↳ E. Kitolano

87'

D. Dashaev← F. Palerud

87'

L. Gausdal← T. Strannegard

87'

L. Alperud← S. Drammeh

87'

M. Diop← T. Olsen

90+1'

M. Waehler← E. Kitolano

Start

Lillestrom

12

Hedenstad

2

⚽

Ranger

19

▼

6

4

28

8

A

Karlsbakk

23

▼

Asen

10

▼

Olsen

15

A

▼

Drammeh

17

A

▼

Kitolano

1

Larsen

4

Hansen

16

▼

Strannega

3

Ujkani

6

Norheim

2

▼

Palerud

11

▼

Schulze

18

▼

Ugland

20

Lorentzen

25

▼

Benjamin

10

Mvoue

14'▲E. Gono←▼T. Benjamin

72'▲M. Soomets←▼E. Schulze

72'▲S. Sjokvist←▼M. Ugland

87'▲D. Dashaev←▼F. Palerud

87'▲L. Gausdal←▼T. Strannegard

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen5Jebali13Griesbeck14Soomets19Dashaev21Sjokvist22Nilsen29Gono30Gausdal

Manager: Hans Erik Ødegaard

64'▲F. Elkaer←▼K. Tonnesen

64'▲H. Woxen←▼G. Asen

87'▲L. Alperud←▼S. Drammeh

87'▲M. Diop←▼T. Olsen

90+1'▲M. Waehler←▼E. Kitolano

Lillestrom substitutes

1Hagerup7Alperud11Elkaer14Adedeji27Waehler30Svenningsen32Woxen33Diop64Larsson

1. Division: Start 0–3 Lillestrom

Lillestrom beat Start 3-0 in 1. Division on July 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Ranger (43'), F. Elkaer (76'), H. Woxen (86').

The match was played at Sparebanken Norge Arena Kristiansand in Kristiansand.

Start vs Lillestrom — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Start 0–3 Lillestrom