Lillestrom 3–1 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Lillestrom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Start

Felix Va 68'

M. Karlsbakk 45', 17'

O. Toure 80'

4/11/2026

Eliteserien · Round 4Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Lillestrom51%

×Draw24%

Start25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.12

Lillestrom

1.71

Start

1.12

Lillestrom creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.59

creates per match

0.90

1.34

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.59

Start

0.90

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.34

Start

1.82

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.02on par

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

75%

Lillestrom or Start

76%

Draw or Start

49%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

28%

Start wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

82%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

51%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

24%

Start 1+ goals

67%

Start 2+ goals

31%

Start 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

67%

Start (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.34 · 14 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.59 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Start attack 0.90 + Lillestrom defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lillestrom scores more

51%

level

24%

Start scores more

25%

Lillestrom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Karlsbakk

Lillestrom · M

9.3

Match Events

17'

M. Karlsbakk

23'

Mikael Ugland

45'

M. Karlsbakk↳ L. Ranger

46'

O. Jebali← J. Norheim

61'

Sturla OttesenGoal cancelled

61'

O. Toure← J. Cornelius

61'

H. Lorentzen← L. Gausdal

62'

Erlend Segberg

68'

Felix Va↳ T. Olsen

72'

C. Jebara← S. Drammeh

72'

K. Arierhi← T. Olsen

72'

M. Soomets← E. Schulze

72'

A. F. Gurendal← J. Ampofo

80'

O. Toure↳ H. Lorentzen

87'

G. Nyheim← E. Kitolano

89'

90+5'

90+2'

90+1'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStart

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots11

1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.73

3Corners5

8Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target5

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

496Total Passes321

391Accurate Passes204

79%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

-0.62Goals Prevented-0.62

Discipline

8Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3–1 Start

Lillestrom beat Start 3-1 in Eliteserien on April 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Karlsbakk (17', 45'), Felix Va (68'), O. Toure (80').

Lillestrom controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Åråsen in Lillestrom.

Lillestrom vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3–1 Start