Lillestrom 1–0 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Start

T. Olsen 32'

4/9/2018

Eliteserien · Round 4Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Lillestrom53%

×Draw23%

Start23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.09

Lillestrom

1.78

Start

1.09

Lillestrom creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

1.74

creates per match

0.90

1.29

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

Start

0.90

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.29

Start

1.82

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Lillestrom-0.07on par

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

77%

Lillestrom or Start

77%

Draw or Start

47%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

30%

Start wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

83%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

53%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

26%

Start 1+ goals

66%

Start 2+ goals

30%

Start 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

70%

Start (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.29 · 15 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.78

Start attack 0.90 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lillestrom scores more

53%

level

23%

Start scores more

23%

Lillestrom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Igonen

Lillestrom · G

7.6

Match Events

32'

T. Olsen

46'

K. Ødemarksbakken← A. Melgalvis

46'

T. Christensen← N. Sandberg

61'

Stefan Antonijevic

70'

M. Bringaker← A. Sigurdarson

73'

Damion Lowe

82'

G. Martin← T. Olsen

84'

I. Twum← A. Aremu

89'

E. Brenden← E. Knudtzon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStart

Overview

39%Possession61%

17Total Shots14

7Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots14

2On Target5

8Off Target7

7Blocked2

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box11

Passing

39%Possession61%

283Total Passes438

180Accurate Passes355

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1