Start 3–0 Lillestrom: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Start

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lillestrom

M. Bringaker 78'

K. Kabran 20' (pen)

A. Akinyemi 5'

9/16/2018

Eliteserien · Round 22Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start39%

×Draw24%

Lillestrom37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchLillestrom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.50

Start

1.53

Lillestrom

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.33

creates per match

1.58

1.42

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Start

1.33

Lillestrom

1.58

allows per match

Start

1.42

Lillestrom

1.73

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Lillestrom-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Lillestrom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Start or draw

63%

Start or Lillestrom

76%

Draw or Lillestrom

61%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

19%

Lillestrom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

78%

Start 2+ goals

45%

Start 3+ goals

20%

Lillestrom 1+ goals

78%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

44%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

51%

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Lillestrom away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Lillestrom defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lillestrom attack 1.58 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Start scores more

39%

level

24%

Lillestrom scores more

37%

Start at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

H. Shala

Start · F

8.1

Match Events

5'

A. Akinyemi↳ A. Aremu

14'

Damion Lowe

19'

Marius Amundsen

20'

K. KabranPenalty

22'

S. Rafn← A. Melgalvis

34'

F. Krogstad← E. Knudtzon

45'

Arnor Smarason

46'

T. Christensen← K. Kabran

75'

M. Bringaker← A. Akinyemi

78'

M. Bringaker↳ N. Sandberg

81'

K. Ødemarksbakken← A. Smárason

82'

I. Mensah← A. Aremu

86'

Kristoffer Odemarksbakken

87'

Daniel Alexander Pedersen

90'

Tobias Christensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartLillestrom

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots12

6Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target2

4Off Target7

4Blocked3

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

380Total Passes334

301Accurate Passes239

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Start vs Lillestrom

Start beat Lillestrom 3-0 in Eliteserien on September 16, 2018.

Goals: A. Akinyemi (5'), K. Kabran (20' pen), M. Bringaker (78').

Start controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Lillestrom — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Start vs Lillestrom