Lillestrom 3–0 Start: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Lillestrom

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Start

V. Hoff 89'

K. Tonnesen 68'

E. Kitolano 61'

8/16/2025

1. Division · Round 19Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lillestrom55%

×Draw23%

Start22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.10

Lillestrom

1.86

Start

1.10

Lillestrom creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

2.23

creates per match

1.53

0.67

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Lillestrom

2.23

Start

1.53

allows per match

Lillestrom

0.67

Start

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

78%

Lillestrom or Start

77%

Draw or Start

45%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

31%

Start wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

84%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

55%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

28%

Start 1+ goals

67%

Start 2+ goals

30%

Start 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

71%

Start (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Start away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 2.23 + Start defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.86

Start attack 1.53 + Lillestrom defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lillestrom scores more

55%

level

23%

Start scores more

22%

Lillestrom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

L. Gausdal← M. Ugland

60'

Y. Paintsil← L. Alperud

61'

E. Kitolano↳ M. Karlsbakk

68'

K. Tonnesen↳ V. Hoff

70'

D. Dashaev← S. Sjokvist

70'

A. Adebayo← H. Lorentzen

71'

D. Dashaev

81'

E. Gono← S. Mvoue

86'

E. Larsson← K. Tonnesen

86'

H. Woxen← M. Karlsbakk

89'

V. Hoff↳ H. Woxen

90+1'

M. Diop← T. Olsen

90+1'

M. Waehler← S. Drammeh

Lillestrom

Start

1

4

16

3

6

21

▼

Sjokvist

10

▼

Mvoue

18

▼

Ugland

11

Schulze

20

▼

14

12

2

19

⚽

▼

Tonnesen

6

⚽A

Hoff

4

Garnas

28

Gabrielse

8

A

▼

Karlsbakk

17

⚽

Kitolano

10

▼

Olsen

7

▼

Alperud

15

▼

Drammeh

Manager: Hans Erik Ødegaard

60'▲Y. Paintsil←▼L. Alperud

86'▲E. Larsson←▼K. Tonnesen

86'▲H. Woxen←▼M. Karlsbakk

90+1'▲M. Diop←▼T. Olsen

90+1'▲M. Waehler←▼S. Drammeh

Lillestrom substitutes

1Hagerup30Svenningsen64Larsson5Foss23Asen32Woxen33Diop26Paintsil27Waehler

7'▲L. Gausdal←▼M. Ugland

70'▲D. Dashaev←▼S. Sjokvist

70'▲A. Adebayo←▼H. Lorentzen

81'▲E. Gono←▼S. Mvoue

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen19Dashaev5Jebali13Griesbeck17Sundo22Nilsen30Gausdal9Adebayo29Gono