Sport Recife 2–2 Santos: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Santos

G. Caballero 70' (OG)

Derik Lacerda 4'

Joao Basso 88'

Gabriel Bontempo 79'

7/26/2025

Serie A · Round 17Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sport Recife35%

×Draw27%

Santos37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Sport Recife

1.21

Santos

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

0.93

creates per match

1.09

1.42

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Santos

1.09

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.42

Santos

1.48

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife-0.04on par

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

63%

Sport Recife or Santos

73%

Draw or Santos

65%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

15%

Santos wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

70%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

34%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

12%

Santos 1+ goals

71%

Santos 2+ goals

36%

Santos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

49%

Santos (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Santos away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Santos defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Santos attack 1.09 + Sport Recife defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sport Recife scores more

35%

level

27%

Santos scores more

37%

Santos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

29'

38'

45+5'

45+3'

Tomás RincónCard upgrade

46'

Pedro Augusto← Ze Lucas

46'

I. Ramirez← Derik Lacerda

46'

Gabriel Bontempo← Souza

46'

Tiquinho Soares← Deivid Washington

46'

G. Caballero← Igor Vinicius

63'

Romarinho← Chrystian Barletta

70'

G. CaballeroOwn goal

78'

Hyoran← Lucas Lima

79'

Gabriel Bontempo↳ Tiquinho Soares

82'

Álvaro Barreal

83'

R. Atencio← Matheusinho

86'

Hyoran

88'

Joao Basso↳ Joao Schmidt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportSantos

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots9

2.08Expected Goals (xG)1.06

4Corners3

25Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target5

7Off Target1

5Blocked3

13Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

330Total Passes485

261Accurate Passes415

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.48Goals Prevented-0.48

Discipline

25Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides3