Santos 1–1 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie B

Santos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sport Recife

Guilherme 29'

Gustavo Coutinho 82' (pen)

8/3/2024

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santos52%

×Draw27%

Sport Recife21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.79

Santos

1.43

Sport Recife

0.79

Santos creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

1.79

creates per match

0.89

0.68

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Santos

1.79

Sport Recife

0.89

allows per match

Santos

0.68

Sport Recife

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santos or draw

79%

Santos or Sport Recife

73%

Draw or Sport Recife

48%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

26%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

76%

Santos 2+ goals

42%

Santos 3+ goals

17%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

55%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

19%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

72%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.79 + Sport Recife defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sport Recife attack 0.89 + Santos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santos scores more

52%

level

27%

Sport Recife scores more

21%

Santos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Guilherme

Santos · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

Guilherme↳ Serginho

33'

Luciano Castan

43'

Felipinho

46'

Lenny Lobato← Felipinho

46'

Luciano← Fábio Matheus

61'

Serginho

66'

T. Rincón← Serginho

66'

Willian← J. Furch

68'

Gonzalo Escobar

73'

Zé Roberto← Dalbert

74'

Igor Cariús← Chrystian Barletta

82'

Gustavo CoutinhoPenalty

86'

Weslley Patati← R. Otero

86'

Souza← G. Escobar

86'

L. Di Plácido← Fabinho

90+1'

Fabricio Domínguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosSport

Overview

46%Possession54%

21Total Shots10

1.14Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots10

5On Target5

11Off Target2

5Blocked3

9Inside Box4

12Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

355Total Passes423

273Accurate Passes328

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1