Santos 3–0 Sport Recife: Result & Stats | Serie A

Santos

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sport Recife

Joao Schmidt 67'

Lucas Kal 36' (OG)

Neymar 25'

11/29/2025

Serie A · Round 36Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Santos50%

×Draw25%

Sport Recife25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchSport Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.02

Santos

1.55

Sport Recife

1.02

Santos creates 52% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

1.41

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Santos

1.41

Sport Recife

1.01

allows per match

Santos

1.02

Sport Recife

1.69

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Santos-0.01on par

Sport Recife-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Sport Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santos or draw

75%

Santos or Sport Recife

75%

Draw or Sport Recife

50%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

25%

Sport Recife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

79%

Santos 2+ goals

46%

Santos 3+ goals

20%

Sport Recife 1+ goals

64%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

27%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

67%

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.41 + Sport Recife defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sport Recife attack 1.01 + Santos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santos scores more

50%

level

25%

Sport Recife scores more

25%

Santos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Neymar

Santos · M

9.3

Match Events

25'

Neymar↳ Guilherme

36'

Lucas KalOwn goal

46'

L. Diaz← Tiquinho Soares

46'

A. Gomes do Nascimento← Lucas Kal

46'

Hyoran← Pablo

60'

B. Rollheiser← Guilherme

61'

Ze Rafael← W. Arao

65'

A. Gomes do Nascimento

67'

Joao Schmidt↳ Neymar

75'

Igor Carius← Matheusinho

76'

Robson Junior← A. Barreal

76'

Aderlan← Matheus Alexandre

84'

Romarinho←

85'

Aderlan

90'

Gabriel Bontempo← Neymar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosSport

Overview

52%Possession48%

17Total Shots11

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.40

9Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target2

6Off Target4

4Blocked5

11Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

375Total Passes351

321Accurate Passes290

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-1.57Goals Prevented-1.57

Discipline

11Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2