Sport Recife 0–0 Santos: Result & Stats | Serie A

Sport Recife

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santos

10/17/2021

Serie A · Round 27Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Sport Recife35%

×Draw27%

Santos37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

Sport Recife

1.21

Santos

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 35 away

0.93

creates per match

1.09

1.42

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Sport Recife

0.93

Santos

1.09

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.42

Santos

1.48

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Recife-0.04on par

Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

63%

Sport Recife or Santos

73%

Draw or Santos

65%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

15%

Santos wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

70%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

34%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

12%

Santos 1+ goals

71%

Santos 2+ goals

36%

Santos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

49%

Santos (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Santos away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 0.93 + Santos defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Santos attack 1.09 + Sport Recife defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sport Recife scores more

35%

level

27%

Santos scores more

37%

Santos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

Jandrei

Santos · G

7.7

Match Events

10'

Carlos Sánchez

25'

L. Barcia← Everaldo

49'

Wagner Leonardo

63'

Diego Tardelli← Raniel

63'

Felipe Jonatan← Wagner

63'

Mádson← Marcos Guilherme

67'

Paulinho Moccelin← Luciano

80'

Madson

86'

S. Tréllez← Gustavo

87'

Ângelo← Marinho

87'

Luizinho← C. Sánchez

90+6'

Sander

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportSantos

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots10

8Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target2

7Off Target3

4Blocked5

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

373Total Passes452

292Accurate Passes379

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2