Sport Recife 2–1 Santos: Result & Stats | Serie B

Sport Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santos

Lucas Lima 63', 45+5' (pen)

Wendel 76'

11/24/2024

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Sport Recife38%

×Draw29%

Santos33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport RecifeExpected goals in this matchSantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Sport Recife

1.13

Santos

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

1.38

creates per match

0.79

1.30

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Sport Recife

1.38

Santos

0.79

allows per match

Sport Recife

1.30

Santos

0.88

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Recife+0.17scores more

Santos+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Recife ↓

Santos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sport Recife or draw

67%

Sport Recife or Santos

71%

Draw or Santos

62%

Winning margin

Sport Recife wins by 2+

15%

Santos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sport Recife 1+ goals

68%

Sport Recife 2+ goals

31%

Sport Recife 3+ goals

11%

Santos 1+ goals

65%

Santos 2+ goals

28%

Santos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Recife (draw refunded)

53%

Santos (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Recife at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Santos away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.88 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Recife attack 1.38 + Santos defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Santos attack 0.79 + Sport Recife defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sport Recife scores more

38%

level

29%

Santos scores more

33%

Sport Recife at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Lucas Lima

Sport Recife · M

8.9

Match Events

14'

Miguel Terceros

45+4'

Hayner

45+4'

Diego Pituca

45+5'

Lucas LimaPenalty

46'

João Pedro Chermont← Hayner

46'

I. Laquintana← M. Terceros

47'

Fabricio Domínguez

54'

Fabinho← F. Domínguez

63'

Lucas Lima↳ Lenny Lobato

66'

Julián Fernández

73'

Diego PitucaGoal cancelled

75'

Wellington Silva← C. Ortíz

75'

H. Palacios← Igor Cariús

76'

Wendel↳ João Basso

78'

Chrystian Barletta

81'

Rodrigo Ferreira← Souza

82'

Julián FernándezPenalty confirmed

86'

90+8'

90+8'

90+2'

90+2'

Gustavo Coutinho← Lucas Lima

90+3'

Luca Meirelles← T. Rincón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportSantos

Overview

45%Possession55%

18Total Shots9

7Corners1

21Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots9

4On Target3

7Off Target5

7Blocked1

13Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

257Total Passes323

188Accurate Passes243

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls17

4Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0