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Spezia vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Spezia
Spezia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Abraham 49'
S. El Shaarawy 45'
1/22/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 19Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Spezia26%
×Draw25%
AS Roma50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.09
AS Roma
1.62

AS Roma creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.00
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Spezia
1.84
AS Roma
1.18

finishing

Spezia-0.43scores less
AS Roma-0.16scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
50%
Spezia or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
74%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
10%
AS Roma wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
30%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%
AS Roma 1+ goals
80%
AS Roma 2+ goals
48%
AS Roma 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
34%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 7 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.00 + AS Roma defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Spezia defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spezia scores more
26%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
50%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. DybalaAS RomaAS Roma · F
8.2

Match Events

13'
Salvador Ferrer← E. Holm
36'
Mehdi Bourabia
40'
Mattia Caldara
45'
S. El Shaarawy↳ P. Dybala
46'
S. Esposito← P. Hristov
46'
D. Maldini← D. Verde
49'
T. Abraham↳ P. Dybala
55'
V. Kovalenko← M. Bourabia
58'
Arkadiusz Reca
71'
E. Bove← S. El Shaarawy
79'
João Moutinho← A. Reca
85'
A. Belotti← P. Dybala
88'
Zeki Çelik
90+3'
O. Solbakken← T. Abraham
90+3'
M. Camara← B. Cristante

Possession

52%Spezia

Shots

8Spezia

Pass accuracy

50%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaAS
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots13
0.25Expected Goals (xG)1.98
4Corners0
17Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots13
0On Target3
5Off Target7
3Blocked3
1Inside Box4
7Outside Box9
Passing
52%Possession48%
509Total Passes485
409Accurate Passes384
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Serie A: Spezia 0–2 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie A on January 22, 2023.

Goals: S. El Shaarawy (45'), T. Abraham (49').

Spezia controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.