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AS Roma vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
Ibañez 56'
C. Smalling 6'
12/13/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 17Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

AS Roma44%
×Draw27%
Spezia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.40
Spezia
1.09

AS Roma creates 28% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 7 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.45
Spezia
1.29

allows per match

AS Roma
0.89
Spezia
1.34

finishing

AS Roma+0.31scores more
Spezia-0.15scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
71%
AS Roma or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
56%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
21%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
41%
AS Roma 3+ goals
17%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
30%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
60%
Spezia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spezia attack 1.29 + AS Roma defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Roma scores more
44%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
29%

AS Roma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
IbañezAS RomaAS Roma · D
8.2

Match Events

6'
C. Smalling↳ T. Abraham
17'
J. Kiwior← J. Sala
53'
K. Agudelo← V. Kovalenko
53'
S. Bastoni← G. Maggiore
53'
D. Verde← D. Strelec
54'
Matías Viña
56'
Ibañez↳ J. Veretout
62'
Rey ManajGoal cancelled
64'
A. Diawara← C. Smalling
64'
F. Ohene-Gyan← Borja Mayoral
65'
Marash Kumbulla
70'
Felix Afena-Gyan
90+3'
Felix Afena-Gyan
90+3'
Felix Afena-Gyan
90+2'
Emmanuel Gyasi
90+3'
E. Bove← J. Veretout

Possession

52%AS

Shots

12AS

Pass accuracy

50%AS

Statistics

ASSpezia
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots8
9Corners4
13Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots8
6On Target2
2Off Target3
4Blocked3
10Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
501Total Passes456
421Accurate Passes382
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls7
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Spezia

AS Roma beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie A on December 13, 2021.

Goals: C. Smalling (6'), Ibañez (56').

AS Roma controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.