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Spezia vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Spezia
Spezia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Abraham 90+9' (pen)
2/27/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 27Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Spezia26%
×Draw25%
AS Roma48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.08
AS Roma
1.56

AS Roma creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 37 away

creates per match

Spezia
0.98
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Spezia
1.73
AS Roma
1.18

finishing

Spezia-0.48scores less
AS Roma-0.16scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
52%
Spezia or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
74%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
10%
AS Roma wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%
AS Roma 1+ goals
79%
AS Roma 2+ goals
46%
AS Roma 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
35%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 0.98 + AS Roma defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.08

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Spezia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spezia scores more
26%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
48%

AS Roma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
I. ProvedelSpeziaSpezia · G
8.6

Match Events

13'
G. Maggiore← J. Sala
30'
Kevin Agudelo
39'
Kelvin Amian
45'
Kelvin Amian
45'
Kelvin Amian
45+3'
Gianluca Mancini
46'
Salvador Ferrer← D. Verde
46'
N. Zaniolo← G. Mancini
63'
E. Gyasi← S. Bastoni
64'
Marash Kumbulla
68'
S. El Shaarawy← J. Veretout
79'
E. Shomurodov← N. Zalewski
85'
Jakub Kiwior
90+7'
Giulio Maggiore
90+5'
Nicolò Zaniolo
90+5'
Nicolò ZanioloPenalty awarded
90+2'
E. Bove← H. Mkhitaryan
90+9'
T. AbrahamPenalty

Possession

35%Spezia

Shots

9Spezia

Pass accuracy

47%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaAS
Overview
35%Possession65%
9Total Shots31
1Corners8
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots31
3On Target10
4Off Target14
2Blocked7
4Inside Box22
5Outside Box9
Passing
35%Possession65%
333Total Passes603
254Accurate Passes519
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
5Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides5

Serie A: Spezia 0–1 AS Roma

AS Roma beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie A on February 27, 2022.

Goals: T. Abraham (90+9' pen).

AS Roma controlled possession (65%) and registered 31 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.