AS Roma 2–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spezia

P. Dybala 90+1' (pen)

N. Zalewski 43'

D. Nikolaou 6'

6/4/2023

Serie A · Round 38Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AS Roma45%

×Draw26%

Spezia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

AS Roma

1.44

Spezia

1.08

AS Roma creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 6 away

1.45

creates per match

1.28

0.89

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

AS Roma

1.45

Spezia

1.28

allows per match

AS Roma

0.89

Spezia

1.42

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.31scores more

Spezia+0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

72%

AS Roma or Spezia

74%

Draw or Spezia

55%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

22%

Spezia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

76%

AS Roma 2+ goals

42%

AS Roma 3+ goals

18%

Spezia 1+ goals

66%

Spezia 2+ goals

29%

Spezia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

62%

Spezia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.89 · 37 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spezia attack 1.28 + AS Roma defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AS Roma scores more

45%

level

26%

Spezia scores more

28%

AS Roma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Dybala

AS Roma · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

D. Nikolaou↳ M. Bourabia

14'

Salvatore Esposito

43'

N. Zalewski↳ S. El Shaarawy

44'

Lorenzo Pellegrini

46'

Diego Llorente← Z. Çelik

58'

Dimitris Nikolaou

64'

T. Abraham← A. Belotti

64'

66'

76'

78'

80'

L. Spinazzola← T. Abraham

82'

G. Wijnaldum← G. Mancini

86'

Emmanuel Gyasi

87'

A. Ekdal← S. Żurkowski

87'

88'

88'

88'

90+12'

90+7'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

90+2'

E. Shomurodov← S. Esposito

90+7'

R. Krollis← D. Nikolaou

90+7'

T. Cipot← M. Bourabia

90+1'

P. DybalaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASSpezia

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots8

2.24Expected Goals (xG)1.05

6Corners2

14Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots8

5On Target2

11Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

516Total Passes232

447Accurate Passes163

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards9

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Spezia

AS Roma beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie A on June 4, 2023.

Goals: D. Nikolaou (6'), N. Zalewski (43'), P. Dybala (90+1' pen).

AS Roma controlled possession (69%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.

AS Roma vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Spezia