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Spezia vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Spezia
Spezia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Pobega 38'
D. Verde 6'
H. Mkhitaryan 85'
S. El Shaarawy 52'
5/23/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 38Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Spezia26%
×Draw25%
AS Roma50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.09
AS Roma
1.62

AS Roma creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.00
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Spezia
1.84
AS Roma
1.18

finishing

Spezia-0.43scores less
AS Roma-0.16scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
50%
Spezia or AS Roma
75%
Draw or AS Roma
74%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
10%
AS Roma wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
30%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%
AS Roma 1+ goals
80%
AS Roma 2+ goals
48%
AS Roma 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
34%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 7 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.00 + AS Roma defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Spezia defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spezia scores more
26%
level
25%
AS Roma scores more
50%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
RafaelSpeziaSpezia · G
8.2

Match Events

6'
D. Verde↳ M. Nzola
38'
T. Pobega↳ M. Nzola
46'
D. Santon← B. Reynolds
46'
T. Pobega← M. Ricci
52'
S. El Shaarawy
60'
B. Mayoral← E. Dzeko
61'
E. Darboe← G. Villar
68'
S. Bastoni← J. Ramos
68'
D. Verde← K. Agudelo
71'
Pedro← J. Pastore
71'
L. Agoume← G. Maggiore
85'
H. Mkhitaryan↳ E. Dzeko
88'
N. Estevez← M. Erlic
90+4'
M. Kumbulla

Possession

42%Spezia

Shots

17Spezia

Pass accuracy

49%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaAS
Overview
42%Possession58%
17Total Shots14
5Corners2
13Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots14
8On Target10
7Off Target2
2Blocked2
13Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
447Total Passes595
365Accurate Passes510
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
8Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Serie A: Spezia 2–2 AS Roma

Spezia and AS Roma drew 2-2 in Serie A on May 23, 2021.

Goals: D. Verde (6'), T. Pobega (38'), S. El Shaarawy (52'), H. Mkhitaryan (85').

AS Roma controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.