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Spartak Moscow vs Akron — Premier League 2026

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Akron
Akron
Marquinhos 88'
C. Martins 45'
C. Wooh 41'
P. Solari 23'
M. Boldyrev 62', 18'
Benchimol 57' (pen)
3/9/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Moscow50%
×Draw24%
Akron25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.69
Akron
1.13

Spartak Moscow creates 50% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 32 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
Akron
1.22

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.03
Akron
1.66

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
75%
Spartak Moscow or Akron
76%
Draw or Akron
50%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
27%
Akron wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
82%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
50%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
24%
Akron 1+ goals
68%
Akron 2+ goals
31%
Akron 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
66%
Akron (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches

Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Akron attack 1.22 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
50%
level
24%
Akron scores more
25%

Spartak Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91
M. BoldyrevAkronAkron · F
8.5

Match Events

7'
Yomar Rocha
18'
M. Boldyrev↳ I. Nedelcearu
23'
P. Solari↳ N. Umyarov
41'
C. Wooh↳ E. Barco
45'
C. Martins
55'
BenchimolPenalty confirmed
57'
BenchimolPenalty
62'
M. Boldyrev↳ R. Fernandez
63'
Marquinhos← C. Martins
66'
Khetag Khosonov
72'
D. Pestryakov← M. Boldyrev
76'
E. Sevikyan← Benchimol
80'
R. Zobnin← G. Fernandes
80'
L. Garcia← M. Ugalde
82'
Daniil Denisov
84'
K. Maradishvili← Y. Rocha
87'
V. Saus← D. Denisov
87'
N. Massalyga← P. Solari
88'
Marquinhos↳ E. Barco
90+5'
Alexander Djiku

Possession

65%Spartak

Shots

16Spartak

Pass accuracy

57%Spartak

Statistics

SpartakAkron
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots10
9Corners1
13Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots10
9On Target4
4Off Target2
3Blocked4
11Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
457Total Passes237
378Accurate Passes147
83%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
5Offsides2

Premier League: Spartak Moscow 4–3 Akron

Spartak Moscow beat Akron 4-3 in Premier League on March 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Boldyrev (18', 62'), P. Solari (23'), C. Wooh (41'), C. Martins (45'), Benchimol (57' pen), Marquinhos (88').

Spartak Moscow controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moscow.