Akron 2–3 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Akron

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Moscow

A. Dzyuba 70'

S. Esanov 58' (pen)

C. Martins 59', 17'

T. Bongonda 20'

3/12/2025

Cup · Regions Path - Quarter-finals - 2nd RoundSolidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akron44%

×Draw25%

Spartak Moscow31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.27

Akron

1.56

Spartak Moscow

1.27

Akron creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.86

creates per match

1.61

0.93

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Akron

1.86

Spartak Moscow

1.61

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Spartak Moscow

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Akron or draw

69%

Akron or Spartak Moscow

75%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

56%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

22%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

79%

Akron 2+ goals

46%

Akron 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

72%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

36%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

59%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.86 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Akron scores more

44%

level

25%

Spartak Moscow scores more

31%

Akron at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

C. Martins

20'

T. Bongonda

46'

K. Danilin← V. Khubulov

46'

I. Nedelcearu← Rodrigo Escoval

46'

D. Pestryakov← A. Dmitriev

58'

S. EsanovPenalty

59'

C. Martins

61'

A. Dzyuba← S. Gribov

61'

S. Lončar← S. Esanov

64'

Ricardo Mangas← T. Bongonda

64'

J. Medina← C. Martins

70'

A. Dzyuba

75'

Marquinhos← O. Reabciuk

75'

E. Barco← P. Solari

89'

S. Babić← L. García

Statistics

AkronSpartak

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0