Spartak Moscow vs Akron — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Spartak Moscow50%
Akron25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Spartak Moscow creates 50% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Spartak Moscow ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 119 matches
Akron away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + Akron defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69
Akron attack 1.22 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Spartak Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Akron substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
LokomotivSpartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo MakhachkalaAkron
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Spartak Moscow host Akron on Sunday, 10 November 2024 at 12:15. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Premier League: Spartak Moscow 4–0 Akron
Spartak Moscow beat Akron 4-0 in Premier League on November 10, 2024.
Goals: T. Bongonda (28', 63'), M. Ugalde (58', 74').
Spartak Moscow controlled possession (74%) and registered 23 shots to 4.
The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moskva.