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Akron vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
D. Pestryakov 29'
A. Dzyuba 23' (pen)
E. Barco 90+4' (pen)
A. Đurasović 61' (OG)
T. Bongonda 39'
4/19/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Solidarnost Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron30%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moscow45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.26
Spartak Moscow
1.58

Spartak Moscow creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 119 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
Spartak Moscow
1.36

allows per match

Akron
1.81
Spartak Moscow
1.27

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akron or draw
55%
Akron or Spartak Moscow
75%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
70%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
72%
Akron 2+ goals
36%
Akron 3+ goals
13%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
41%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Spartak Moscow attack 1.36 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Akron scores more
30%
level
25%
Spartak Moscow scores more
45%

Spartak Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
A. DzyubaAkronAkron · F
8.7

Match Events

21'
Artem DzyubaPenalty confirmed
23'
A. DzyubaPenalty
29'
D. Pestryakov↳ A. Dzyuba
34'
Konstantin Savichev
39'
T. Bongonda↳ Marquinhos
45+3'
Maksim Kuzmin
45+5'
Esequiel BarcoMissed penalty
46'
K. Danilin← S. Bakaev
46'
P. Solari← O. Reabciuk
46'
M. Ugalde← N. Umyarov
55'
Dmitriy Pestryakov
55'
V. Moskvichev← M. Kuzmin
59'
Christopher Martins Pereira
59'
V. Khubulov← K. Savichev
61'
A. ĐurasovićOwn goal
71'
Pablo Solari
78'
Artem Dzyuba
82'
I. Đakovac← S. Lončar
82'
N. Massalyga← T. Bongonda
82'
M. Ignatov← L. García
90+1'
Ifet Đakovac
90+5'
Esequiel Barco
90+4'
E. BarcoPenalty

Possession

31%Akron

Shots

9Akron

Pass accuracy

45%Akron

Statistics

AkronSpartak
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots17
2Corners3
23Fouls17
Shots
9Total Shots17
5On Target8
3Off Target4
1Blocked5
8Inside Box9
1Outside Box8
Passing
31%Possession69%
218Total Passes484
152Accurate Passes415
70%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
23Fouls17
5Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Premier League: Akron 2–3 Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat Akron 3-2 in Premier League on April 19, 2025.

Goals: A. Dzyuba (23' pen), D. Pestryakov (29'), T. Bongonda (39'), A. Đurasović (61' o.g.), E. Barco (90+4' pen).

Spartak Moscow controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Solidarnost Samara Arena in Samara.