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Akron vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2026

Akron
Akron
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
A. Dzyuba 90' (pen)
P. Solari 90'
8/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Akron30%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moscow45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akron
1.26
Spartak Moscow
1.58

Spartak Moscow creates 25% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 119 away

creates per match

Akron
1.25
Spartak Moscow
1.36

allows per match

Akron
1.81
Spartak Moscow
1.27

finishing

Akron+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akron or draw
55%
Akron or Spartak Moscow
75%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
70%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+
13%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals
72%
Akron 2+ goals
36%
Akron 3+ goals
13%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)
41%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.81 · 32 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.25 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Spartak Moscow attack 1.36 + Akron defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Akron scores more
30%
level
25%
Spartak Moscow scores more
45%

Spartak Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. DzyubaAkronAkron · F
8.0

Match Events

5'
Ifet Đakovac
45'
Marat Bokoev
45+2'
Daniil Khlusevich
45+1'
Daniil Khlusevich
45+2'
Daniil Khlusevich
45+5'
D. Denisov← M. Ugalde
46'
I. Dmitriev← G. Fernandes
46'
P. Solari← O. Reabciuk
57'
Aleksa Đurasović
61'
Maksim BoldyrevPenalty confirmed
73'
M. Kuzmin← S. Loncar
77'
Benchimol← D. Pestryakov
86'
D. Zorin← E. Barco
86'
R. Zobnin← C. Martins
90'
Maksim Kuzmin
90'
Aleksandr Maksimenko
90'
A. Dmitriev← M. Boldyrev
90'
P. Solari↳ I. Dmitriev
90'
A. DzyubaPenalty

Possession

40%Akron

Shots

12Akron

Pass accuracy

48%Akron

Statistics

AkronSpartak
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots14
2.68Expected Goals (xG)1.06
3Corners7
13Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target3
4Off Target7
4Blocked4
6Inside Box11
6Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
279Total Passes427
215Accurate Passes352
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Akron vs Spartak Moscow

Akron and Spartak Moscow drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 3, 2025.

Goals: P. Solari (90'), A. Dzyuba (90' pen).

Spartak Moscow controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.