Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

J. Coburn 21'

4/8/2025

Championship · Round 41Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Utd48%

×Draw26%

Millwall27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.07

Sheffield Utd

1.53

Millwall

1.07

Sheffield Utd creates 43% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

1.14

1.01

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.73

Millwall

1.14

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

Millwall

1.33

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

73%

Sheffield Utd or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

52%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

24%

Millwall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

45%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

20%

Millwall 1+ goals

66%

Millwall 2+ goals

29%

Millwall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

64%

Millwall (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Millwall attack 1.14 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

48%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

27%

Sheffield Utd at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Jensen

Millwall · G

8.5

Match Events

21'

J. Coburn↳ C. De Norre

45+1'

Joe Bryan

46'

J. Rak-Sakyi← B. Brereton

65'

C. O'Hare← R. Brewster

65'

T. Cannon← T. Campbell

65'

Vinicius Souza← H. Choudhury

66'

A. Emakhu← L. Cundle

73'

R. Holding← F. Seriki

73'

G. Saville← M. Ivanović

73'

M. Langstaff← C. De Norre

78'

W. Harding← G. Honeyman

78'

R. Wintle← B. Mitchell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMillwall

Overview

66%Possession34%

25Total Shots7

1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.52

11Corners4

5Fouls18

Shots

25Total Shots7

5On Target2

8Off Target2

12Blocked3

20Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

517Total Passes269

420Accurate Passes180

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

5Fouls18

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Championship: Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall

Millwall beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 in Championship on April 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Coburn (21').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (66%) and registered 25 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall