Millwall 3–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Utd

T. Bradshaw 88', 63', 6'

J. McAtee 82'

T. Doyle 39'

2/18/2023

Championship · Round 33The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Millwall38%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Millwall

1.23

Sheffield Utd

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.26

creates per match

1.27

1.03

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

66%

Millwall or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

35%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

68%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

32%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

53%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

38%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

34%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Bradshaw

Millwall · F

9.0

Match Events

6'

T. Bradshaw↳ O. Burke

39'

45+1'

45+2'

55'

59'

63'

T. Bradshaw↳ A. Voglsammer

64'

I. Ndiaye← D. Jebbison

72'

R. Leonard← J. Shackleton

72'

G. Honeyman← O. Burke

76'

77'

78'

82'

88'

T. Bradshaw↳ A. Voglsammer

89'

S. Malone← A. Voglsammer

89'

D. Watmore← T. Bradshaw

90+5'

George Honeyman

90+2'

Jack Robinson

90+4'

G. Evans← Z. Flemming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSheffield

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots11

4Corners5

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

6On Target6

3Off Target1

4Blocked4

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

344Total Passes374

235Accurate Passes270

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Millwall vs Sheffield Utd

Millwall beat Sheffield Utd 3-2 in Championship on February 18, 2023.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (6', 63', 88'), T. Doyle (39'), J. McAtee (82').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Millwall vs Sheffield Utd