Sheffield Utd 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

L. Cundle 38'

8/23/2025

Championship · Round 3Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sheffield Utd45%

×Draw25%

Millwall30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Sheffield Utd

1.56

Millwall

1.21

Sheffield Utd creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.68

creates per match

1.39

1.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.68

Millwall

1.39

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.04

Millwall

1.45

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.50scores less

Millwall-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

70%

Sheffield Utd or Millwall

75%

Draw or Millwall

55%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

23%

Millwall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

46%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

21%

Millwall 1+ goals

70%

Millwall 2+ goals

34%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

61%

Millwall (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 11 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.68 + Millwall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Millwall attack 1.39 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

45%

level

25%

Millwall scores more

30%

Sheffield Utd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

T. Crama

Millwall · D

8.2

Match Events

38'

L. Cundle↳ M. Ivanovic

41'

59'

59'

63'

70'

79'

79'

D. Kelly← M. Ivanovic

81'

R. One← L. Barry

81'

F. Seriki← T. Bindon

85'

K. Nisbet← J. Coburn

85'

W. Harding← L. Cundle

90+2'

Sydie Peck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldMillwall

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots17

1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.40

8Corners7

11Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target6

7Off Target8

3Blocked3

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box9

Passing

62%Possession38%

484Total Passes302

391Accurate Passes196

81%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.48Goals Prevented0.48

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides5