Millwall 1–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Utd

M. Ivanovic 19'

A. Brooks 17'

1/31/2026

Championship · Round 30The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall38%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Millwall

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

1.32

1.14

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Millwall

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.32

allows per match

Millwall

1.14

Sheffield Utd

1.29

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

72%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

35%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 15 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.29 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sheffield Utd attack 1.32 + Millwall defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more

38%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Brooks

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

A. Brooks↳ G. Hamer

19'

M. Ivanovic↳ C. Taylor

45+1'

H. Burrows← S. McCallum

48'

O. Arblaster← T. Davies

60'

Z. Sturge← A. Doughty

69'

Mark McGuinness

70'

B. Bannan← M. Langstaff

71'

J. Coburn← M. Ivanovic

78'

Jake Cooper

80'

T. Campbell← G. Hamer

84'

Casper De Norre

86'

T. Ballo← C. De Norre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSheffield

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots12

1.44Expected Goals (xG)1.22

6Corners8

9Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target6

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

361Total Passes325

227Accurate Passes185

63%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

0.64Goals Prevented0.64

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Sheffield Utd

Millwall and Sheffield Utd drew 1-1 in Championship on January 31, 2026.

Goals: A. Brooks (17'), M. Ivanovic (19').

Millwall controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Sheffield Utd