Millwall 0–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

R. Brewster 42'

12/11/2024

Championship · Round 20The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 41+ matches

Millwall37%

×Draw28%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.18

Millwall

1.23

Sheffield Utd

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 41 away

1.27

creates per match

1.32

1.03

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Millwall

1.27

Sheffield Utd

1.32

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Sheffield Utd

1.19

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.07on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

65%

Millwall or Sheffield Utd

72%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

71%

Millwall 2+ goals

35%

Millwall 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.03 · 59 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.27 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sheffield Utd attack 1.32 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Millwall scores more

37%

level

28%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Gilchrist

Sheffield Utd · D

8.3

Match Events

42'

R. Brewster↳ G. Hamer

54'

T. Davies← Vinicius Souza

56'

K. Moore← J. Rak-Sakyi

64'

M. Langstaff← O. Azeez

66'

S. McCallum← R. Brewster

77'

R. Wintle← C. De Norre

77'

A. Emakhu← D. Watmore

84'

Jack Robinson

84'

J. Shackleton← G. Hamer

90+5'

Alfie Gilchrist

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallSheffield

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots9

0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.46

7Corners3

10Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target1

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

10Inside Box7

1Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

381Total Passes510

272Accurate Passes397

71%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

10Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1