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Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
Preview
02:00
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
8/15/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageLumen Field
Big match
59%
Seattle Reign FC W
model favours
59%24%17%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W59%
×Draw24%
Chicago Red Stars W17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.66
Chicago Red Stars W
0.77

Seattle Reign FC W creates 116% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.08
Chicago Red Stars W
0.62

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.92
Chicago Red Stars W
2.24

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
83%
Seattle Reign FC W or Chicago Red Stars W
76%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
41%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
32%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
81%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
49%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
23%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
54%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
18%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
77%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chicago Red Stars W attack 0.62 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
59%
level
24%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
17%

Seattle Reign FC W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WLLWL
W
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W — Match Preview

Seattle Reign FC W face Chicago Red Stars W on August 15, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Seattle Reign FC W host Chicago Red Stars W at Lumen Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.