Seattle Reign FC W 1–2 Chicago Red Stars W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Chicago Red Stars W

T. King 79'

M. Swanson 31'

A. Schlegel 4'

4/21/2024

NWSL Women · Round 5Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W56%

×Draw25%

Chicago Red Stars W19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.79

Seattle Reign FC W

1.59

Chicago Red Stars W

0.79

Seattle Reign FC W creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

0.68

0.90

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

Chicago Red Stars W

0.68

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.90

Chicago Red Stars W

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

81%

Seattle Reign FC W or Chicago Red Stars W

75%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

44%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

30%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

80%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

47%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

21%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

55%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

19%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

75%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chicago Red Stars W attack 0.68 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

56%

level

25%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

19%

Seattle Reign FC W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Swanson

Chicago Red Stars W · M

9.0

Match Events

4'

A. Schlegel↳ M. Swanson

7'

Taylor Malham

31'

M. Swanson↳ J. Bike

45+6'

Ji So-yun

46'

Quinn← O. Van der Jagt

46'

P. McClernon← L. Woodham

54'

Penelope Hocking

66'

Sofia Huerta

70'

Ally Cook← A. Schlegel

70'

J. Joseph← P. Hocking

72'

O. Athens← Ji So-Yun

77'

T. King← E. Adames

77'

M. Weinert← V. Latsko

79'

T. King↳ J. Fishlock

90+3'

Nádia Gomes← J. Joseph

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleChicago

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots12

6Corners5

10Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target8

5Off Target4

5Blocked0

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

438Total Passes350

346Accurate Passes242

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3