Chicago Red Stars W 2–1 Seattle Reign FC W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Seattle Reign FC W

M. Rall 68'

Júlia Bianchi 42'

Ji So-Yun 63'

3/23/2024

NWSL Women · Round 2SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W37%

×Draw24%

Seattle Reign FC W39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Chicago Red Stars W

1.48

Seattle Reign FC W

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

1.26

1.83

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.30

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.83

Seattle Reign FC W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

61%

Chicago Red Stars W or Seattle Reign FC W

76%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

63%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

17%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

43%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

19%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

79%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

45%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

48%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

37%

level

24%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

39%

Seattle Reign FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

Ji So-Yun

Seattle Reign FC W · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

Natalia Kuikka

42'

Júlia Bianchi

46'

Ava Cook← Nádia Gomes

63'

Ji So-Yun

68'

M. Rall↳ T. Malham

69'

R. Brown← L. Woodham

69'

O. Van der Jagt← A. James-Turner

78'

S. Griffith← A. Schlegel

79'

L. Nesbeth← Júlia Bianchi

81'

E. Adames← J. Huitema

81'

T. King← B. Balcer

84'

Ally Cook← M. Swanson

85'

Phoebe McClernon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoSeattle

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots16

2Corners7

8Fouls5

Shots

6Total Shots16

3On Target2

1Off Target7

2Blocked7

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

350Total Passes569

242Accurate Passes445

69%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2