Chicago Red Stars W 0–3 Seattle Reign FC W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Seattle Reign FC W

J. Fishlock 59'

M. Rapinoe 50', 47'

10/15/2023

NWSL Women · Round 14SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W37%

×Draw24%

Seattle Reign FC W39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Chicago Red Stars W

1.48

Seattle Reign FC W

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 34 away

1.30

creates per match

1.26

1.83

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.30

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.83

Seattle Reign FC W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

61%

Chicago Red Stars W or Seattle Reign FC W

76%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

63%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

17%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

43%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

19%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

79%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

45%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

48%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

37%

level

24%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

39%

Seattle Reign FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Rapinoe

Seattle Reign FC W · M

9.0

Match Events

23'

Veronica Latsko

47'

M. Rapinoe↳ Quinn

50'

M. Rapinoe↳ J. Fishlock

59'

J. Fishlock↳ A. Cook

60'

E. Stevens← Julia Bianchi

60'

P. Hocking← C. Matthews

61'

Jessica FishlockGoal confirmed

70'

A. Schlegel← A. Cook

70'

O. Van der Jagt← J. Fishlock

70'

S. Huerta← R. Brown

76'

B. Balcer← M. Rapinoe

86'

J. Bike← B. St-Georges

88'

E. Bennett← J. Huitema

88'

N. Stanton← Quinn

89'

Alana Cook

90+4'

Arin Wright

90+3'

Bethany Balcer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoSeattle

Overview

55%Possession45%

7Total Shots14

4Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots14

1On Target7

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

470Total Passes370

381Accurate Passes288

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5