Chicago Red Stars W 2–2 Seattle Reign FC W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Seattle Reign FC W

Ludmila 13', 11'

J. Bugg 89'

L. Biyendolo 87'

6/14/2025

NWSL Women · Round 12SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W36%

×Draw25%

Seattle Reign FC W39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.48

Chicago Red Stars W

1.41

Seattle Reign FC W

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

1.13

1.83

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.30

Seattle Reign FC W

1.13

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.83

Seattle Reign FC W

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

61%

Chicago Red Stars W or Seattle Reign FC W

75%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

64%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

17%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

76%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

41%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

17%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

77%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

43%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

48%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.30 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.13 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

36%

level

25%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

39%

Seattle Reign FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Biyendolo

Seattle Reign FC W · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

Ludmila↳ M. Lopez Millan

13'

Ludmila↳ S. Staab

21'

S. Holmes← L. Barnes

36'

Maddie DahlienPenalty cancelled

46'

S. Meza← A. McCammon

46'

Ji So-Yun← N. Mondesir

57'

B. Franklin← M. Hayashi

57'

C. Biegalski← N. Kuikka

57'

A. Schlegel← J. Grosso

61'

A. Cook← Ludmila

67'

Madison Curry

67'

J. Huitema← E. Adames

73'

N. Gomes← J. Bike

80'

M. Mercado← P. McClernon

84'

H. Anderson← S. Groom

87'

L. Biyendolo

89'

J. Bugg↳ M. G. Dahlien

90+4'

E. Mason← M. G. Dahlien

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicagoSeattle

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots17

3Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots17

5On Target6

1Off Target6

2Blocked5

5Inside Box13

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

341Total Passes421

240Accurate Passes326

70%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1