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Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
E. Adames 46'
J. Huitema 34'
J. Fishlock 3'
A. Naeher 90'
C. Biegalski 78'
Ludmila 73'
8/19/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 16Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W57%
×Draw25%
Chicago Red Stars W19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.63
Chicago Red Stars W
0.82

Seattle Reign FC W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.08
Chicago Red Stars W
0.68

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.96
Chicago Red Stars W
2.18

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
81%
Seattle Reign FC W or Chicago Red Stars W
75%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
43%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
31%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
80%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
48%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
22%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
56%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
20%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
75%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chicago Red Stars W attack 0.68 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
57%
level
25%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
19%

Seattle Reign FC W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. HuitemaSeattle Reign FC WSeattle Reign FC W · F
8.3

Match Events

3'
J. Fishlock↳ J. Huitema
14'
C. Biegalski← N. Kuikka
32'
M. Hayashi← S. Groom
34'
J. Huitema
46'
B. Franklin← M. Lopez Millan
46'
E. Adames
55'
J. Joseph← J. Bike
56'
Sam Staab
66'
L. Biyendolo← J. Huitema
66'
M. Fishel← M. G. Dahlien
66'
J. Bugg← M. Curry
73'
Ludmila↳ A. Schlegel
78'
C. Biegalski↳ T. Malham
85'
E. Mason← E. Adames
85'
S. Meza← J. Fishlock
88'
Samantha Meza
90'
A. Naeher

Possession

36%Seattle

Shots

11Seattle

Pass accuracy

45%Seattle

Statistics

SeattleChicago
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots21
1Corners4
12Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots21
7On Target11
3Off Target5
1Blocked5
8Inside Box16
3Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
270Total Passes484
186Accurate Passes400
69%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Seattle Reign FC W and Chicago Red Stars W drew 3-3 in NWSL Women on August 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Fishlock (3'), J. Huitema (34'), E. Adames (46'), Ludmila (73'), C. Biegalski (78'), A. Naeher (90').

Chicago Red Stars W controlled possession (64%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle.