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Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
4/22/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 3Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W49%
×Draw25%
Chicago Red Stars W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.60
Chicago Red Stars W
1.08

Seattle Reign FC W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.35
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.04
Chicago Red Stars W
1.86

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
74%
Seattle Reign FC W or Chicago Red Stars W
75%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
51%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
26%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
80%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
47%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
22%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
66%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
29%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
66%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.04 · 85 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.35 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
49%
level
25%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
26%

Seattle Reign FC W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W

Seattle Reign FC W beat Chicago Red Stars W 5-2 in NWSL Women on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.