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Sarmiento Junin vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
G. Mainero 54'
4/20/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Eva Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sarmiento Junin40%
×Draw30%
Platense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Junin
1.15
Platense
0.95

Sarmiento Junin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.00
Platense
0.83

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.06
Platense
1.29

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.12scores less
Platense+0.17scores more

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw
70%
Sarmiento Junin or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
60%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
17%
Platense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
68%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
32%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
11%
Platense 1+ goals
61%
Platense 2+ goals
25%
Platense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
57%
Platense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Platense away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.00 + Platense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Platense attack 0.83 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more
40%
level
30%
Platense scores more
30%

Sarmiento Junin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
I. VazquezPlatensePlatense · D
7.9

Match Events

18'
Juan Ignacio Saborido
30'
Rodrigo Herrera
46'
B. Barros Schelotto← J. Saborido
46'
F. Juarez← R. Herrera
54'
G. Mainero↳ R. Martinez
59'
J. Vallejos← R. Orihuela
59'
F. Paradela← E. Gimenez
59'
F. Frias← G. Carabajal
65'
F. Zapiola← V. Taborda
67'
Tomás Ariel Silva
70'
J. Renteria← L. Suhr
73'
N. Orsini← R. Martinez
79'
Carlos Villalba
79'
G. Diaz← J. Godoy
83'
I. Schor← A. Lotti
90+4'
Franco Zapiola

Possession

53%Sarmiento

Shots

12Sarmiento

Pass accuracy

50%Sarmiento

Statistics

SarmientoPlatense
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots11
7Corners5
10Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots11
2On Target4
5Off Target4
5Blocked3
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
377Total Passes342
273Accurate Passes250
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls18
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Platense

Platense beat Sarmiento Junin 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 20, 2025.

Goals: G. Mainero (54').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Peron in Junin.