Platense 0–0 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

6/26/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Platense49%

×Draw32%

Sarmiento Junin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.60

Platense

1.13

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

Platense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

0.54

0.66

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Platense

1.00

Sarmiento Junin

0.54

allows per match

Platense

0.66

Sarmiento Junin

1.26

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Platense-0.33scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Platense or draw

80%

Platense or Sarmiento Junin

68%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

51%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

21%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

31%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

45%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

71%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.66 · 18 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.00 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.54 + Platense defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Platense scores more

49%

level

32%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

20%

Platense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Villalba

Platense · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

45+3'

52'

53'

56'

59'

S. Guerrero← I. Schor

59'

J. Esquivel← A. Sabella

64'

66'

67'

67'

78'

83'

83'

H. Mancilla← L. Castro

89'

V. Taborda← M. Zárate

89'

G. Bergessio← R. Contreras

90+4'

Manuel García← H. Mancilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseSarmiento

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots7

3Corners4

17Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots7

4On Target4

8Off Target1

6Blocked2

10Inside Box3

8Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

361Total Passes245

265Accurate Passes151

73%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0