Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Platense

J. Gho 45+1'

11/27/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sarmiento Junin41%

×Draw30%

Platense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.91

Sarmiento Junin

1.13

Platense

0.91

Sarmiento Junin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

0.97

creates per match

0.80

1.02

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.97

Platense

0.80

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.02

Platense

1.28

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.13scores less

Platense+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

71%

Sarmiento Junin or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

59%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

17%

Platense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

68%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

31%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

60%

Platense 2+ goals

23%

Platense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

58%

Platense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 19 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.28 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.97 + Platense defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Platense attack 0.80 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

41%

level

30%

Platense scores more

29%

Sarmiento Junin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

Lucas Acosta

Sarmiento Junin · G

8.0

Match Events

22'

Tomas Guiacobini

42'

S. Morales← F. Roncaglia

45+1'

J. Gho↳ T. Guiacobini

46'

I. Schor← G. Hachen

57'

Juan Manuel Insaurralde

58'

V. Taborda← G. Mainero

59'

A. Lotti← M. Pellegrino

63'

L. López← J. Gho

64'

G. Hauche← I. Morales

68'

A. Ocampo← F. Juárez

75'

F. Paradela← G. Díaz

75'

Y. Arismendi← V. Burgoa

81'

Tobías Cervera← R. Martínez

90+2'

Vicente Taborda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoPlatense

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots9

1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.44

1Corners4

9Fouls4

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

379Total Passes437

273Accurate Passes319

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs Platense

Sarmiento Junin beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 27, 2024.

Goals: J. Gho (45+1').

Platense controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Sarmiento Junin vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs Platense