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Platense vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Platense
Platense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
R. Martinez 90'
G. Diaz 72'
11/3/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense47%
×Draw32%
Sarmiento Junin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Platense
1.14
Sarmiento Junin
0.65

Platense creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Platense
1.01
Sarmiento Junin
0.60

allows per match

Platense
0.70
Sarmiento Junin
1.26

finishing

Platense-0.33scores less
Sarmiento Junin+0.17scores more

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Sarmiento Junin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw
79%
Platense or Sarmiento Junin
68%
Draw or Sarmiento Junin
53%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+
20%
Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals
68%
Platense 2+ goals
32%
Platense 3+ goals
11%
Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
48%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
14%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)
69%
Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.70 · 19 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Platense defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Platense scores more
47%
level
32%
Sarmiento Junin scores more
21%

Platense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
I. VazquezPlatensePlatense · D
7.9

Match Events

16'
Guido Mainero
56'
‪Ignacio SchorGoal cancelled
59'
A. Lotti← I. Schor
60'
Franco Frías
61'
Renzo Orihuela
63'
E. Gimenez← J. Gomez
63'
L. Pratto← F. Frias
68'
A. Seyral← M. Garcia
72'
G. Diaz↳ I. Morales
77'
S. Toloza← F. Baldassarra
78'
R. L. Marquez De Meneses← R. Herrera
80'
L. Suhr← J. Contrera
81'
S. Rodriguez← G. Diaz
85'
N. Orsini← J. Saborido
90+3'
Lucas Acosta
90'
R. Martinez↳ I. Vazquez

Possession

53%Platense

Shots

10Platense

Pass accuracy

49%Platense

Statistics

PlatenseSarmiento
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots5
1.22Expected Goals (xG)1.31
6Corners0
11Fouls21
Shots
10Total Shots5
3On Target3
4Off Target2
3Blocked0
9Inside Box5
1Outside Box0
Passing
53%Possession47%
264Total Passes258
158Accurate Passes162
60%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.45Goals Prevented0.45
Discipline
11Fouls21
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Platense 1–1 Sarmiento Junin

Platense and Sarmiento Junin drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 3, 2025.

Goals: G. Diaz (72'), R. Martinez (90').

Platense controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López in Buenos Aires.