Platense 1–0 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

F. Díaz 51'

7/9/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 24Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Platense47%

×Draw32%

Sarmiento Junin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.65

Platense

1.14

Sarmiento Junin

0.65

Platense creates 75% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.01

creates per match

0.60

0.70

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Platense

1.01

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

allows per match

Platense

0.70

Sarmiento Junin

1.26

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Platense-0.33scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Platense or draw

79%

Platense or Sarmiento Junin

68%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

53%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

20%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

68%

Platense 2+ goals

32%

Platense 3+ goals

11%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

48%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

14%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

69%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.70 · 19 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.01 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Platense defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Platense scores more

47%

level

32%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

21%

Platense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

R. Lozano

Platense · D

7.3

Match Events

37'

Javier Toledo

46'

S. Quiroga← G. Mainero

46'

M. García← F. Martínez

51'

F. Díaz↳ M. Quiroga

56'

M. Mónaco← F. Sbuttoni

56'

J. Kaprof← E. Méndez

65'

Franco Díaz

69'

V. Taborda← M. Quiroga

69'

L. Cerato← J. Toledo

70'

M. Jacquet← J. Infante

74'

J. Cacciabue← I. Rossi

86'

N. Servetto← R. Martínez

86'

F. Baldassarra← F. Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlatenseSarmiento

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots7

7Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target1

4Off Target6

1Blocked0

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

416Total Passes305

292Accurate Passes194

70%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5