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Sarmiento Junin vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
L. Gondou 90+5'
7/28/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Sarmiento Junin40%
×Draw31%
Platense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Junin
1.09
Platense
0.90

Sarmiento Junin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin
0.97
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.06
Platense
1.21

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.21scores less
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw
70%
Sarmiento Junin or Platense
69%
Draw or Platense
60%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
16%
Platense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
66%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
30%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
10%
Platense 1+ goals
59%
Platense 2+ goals
23%
Platense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
57%
Platense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.06 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.97 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Platense attack 0.73 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more
40%
level
31%
Platense scores more
30%

Sarmiento Junin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
G. GracianiSarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin · M
7.9

Match Events

38'
Jorge De Olivera
41'
L. Ojeda← J. Pereyra
51'
Franco Baldassarra
56'
H. Tijanovich← F. Russo
56'
M. Bogado← H. Lamberti
63'
F. Vismara← F. Bravo
63'
Y. Arismendi← J. Chicco
63'
F. Paradela← G. Alanís
64'
Augusto Schott
72'
P. Cucchi← J. Torres
82'
L. Recalde← F. Baldassarra
82'
F. Curuchet← B. Mansilla
85'
L. Gondou← G. Graciani
90+5'
L. Gondou↳ R. Salinas

Possession

62%Sarmiento

Shots

18Sarmiento

Pass accuracy

55%Sarmiento

Statistics

SarmientoPlatense
Overview
62%Possession38%
18Total Shots8
11Corners6
11Fouls17
Shots
18Total Shots8
4On Target0
6Off Target5
8Blocked3
10Inside Box3
8Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
425Total Passes265
325Accurate Passes166
76%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 1–0 Platense

Sarmiento Junin beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 28, 2021.

Goals: L. Gondou (90+5').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.