Sarmiento Junin 3–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Platense

S. Rosa 89'

N. Orsini 52' (pen)

A. Cólzera 44'

C. Tarragona 25' (pen)

10/9/2018

Primera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Eva Perón de Junín (Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sarmiento Junin43%

×Draw28%

Platense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Sarmiento Junin

1.29

Platense

1.00

Sarmiento Junin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

0.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.57

Platense

1.29

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.71

Platense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Platense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

71%

Sarmiento Junin or Platense

72%

Draw or Platense

57%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

20%

Platense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

72%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

37%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

14%

Platense 1+ goals

63%

Platense 2+ goals

26%

Platense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

60%

Platense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Platense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.57 + Platense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Platense attack 1.29 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

43%

level

28%

Platense scores more

29%

Sarmiento Junin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

C. TarragonaPenalty

44'

A. Cólzera

46'

S. Quiroga← G. Sanabria

52'

N. OrsiniPenalty

55'

D. Vega← R. Cáseres

62'

S. Rosa← A. Cólzera

78'

N. Castro← L. Villalba

82'

E. Gallegos← E. Borrego

85'

J. Vizcarra← N. Morgantini

89'

S. Rosa

Sarmiento

Platense

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cólzera

⚽

Orsini

Manager: I. Delfino

46'▲S. Quiroga←▼G. Sanabria

62'▲S. Rosa←▼A. Cólzera

78'▲N. Castro←▼L. Villalba

Sarmiento Junin substitutes

QuirogaRosaCastroDaffonchioKippesMéndezDepetris

Manager: F. Ruiz

55'▲D. Vega←▼R. Cáseres

82'▲E. Gallegos←▼E. Borrego

85'▲J. Vizcarra←▼N. Morgantini

Platense substitutes

VegaGallegosVizcarraIribarrenClaveroLeguizaVega