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Saint Etienne vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Reims
Reims
I. Miladinovic 49'
L. Stassin 45', 27'
T. Teuma 69', 43' (pen)
9/20/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Saint Etienne40%
×Draw26%
Reims34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.41
Reims
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 27 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Reims
1.52

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Reims
1.04

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
66%
Saint Etienne or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
60%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
19%
Reims wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
76%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
41%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
17%
Reims 1+ goals
72%
Reims 2+ goals
37%
Reims 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
54%
Reims (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Reims attack 1.52 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
40%
level
26%
Reims scores more
34%

Saint Etienne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. TeumaReimsReims · M
8.9

Match Events

20'
Norman Bassette
27'
L. Stassin↳ I. Cardona
40'
N'Tamon Elie Ahouonon
43'
T. TeumaPenalty
45'
L. Stassin↳ A. Boakye
49'
I. Miladinovic↳ A. Boakye
58'
Zabi← T. Leoni
58'
H. Ibrahim← N. Bassette
59'
K. Nakamura← A. Salama
67'
M. Jaber← N. El Jamali
67'
Z. Davitashvili← A. Boakye
68'
A. Bojang← H. Sekine
69'
T. Teuma↳ K. Nakamura
74'
B. Old← I. Cardona
87'
J. Duffus← L. Stassin
87'
A. Tia← M. Gbane
90+7'
Ange Tia
90+4'
Sergio Akieme

Possession

59%Saint

Shots

16Saint

Pass accuracy

51%Saint

Statistics

SaintReims
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots17
1Corners6
6Fouls26
Shots
16Total Shots17
10On Target7
2Off Target4
4Blocked6
10Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
619Total Passes405
535Accurate Passes341
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
6Fouls26
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Saint Etienne 3–2 Reims

Saint Etienne beat Reims 3-2 in Ligue 2 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Stassin (27', 45'), T. Teuma (43' pen, 69'), I. Miladinovic (49').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint Etienne.