Saint Etienne 1–2 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Saint Etienne

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Reims

E. Mangala 12'

K. Doumbia 61'

M. Munetsi 2'

5/14/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 37Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne41%

×Draw27%

Reims32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.16

Saint Etienne

1.34

Reims

1.16

Saint Etienne creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 93 away

1.44

creates per match

1.04

1.28

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.44

Reims

1.04

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.28

Reims

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

68%

Saint Etienne or Reims

73%

Draw or Reims

59%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

19%

Reims wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

74%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

39%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

15%

Reims 1+ goals

69%

Reims 2+ goals

32%

Reims 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

56%

Reims (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Reims away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Reims defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Reims attack 1.04 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

41%

level

27%

Reims scores more

32%

Saint Etienne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Munetsi

Reims · M

8.3

Match Events

2'

M. Munetsi

8'

Eliaquim Mangala

12'

E. Mangala

46'

H. Ekitike← I. Kebbal

46'

M. Busi← B. Locko

46'

A. Gravillon← M. van Bergen

61'

K. Doumbia↳ H. Ekitike

64'

F. Sacko← M. Nade

65'

E. Crivelli← R. Boudebouz

65'

H. Moukoudi← S. Sow

70'

R. Hamouma← Y. Maçon

74'

A. Flips← A. Gravillon

80'

D. Lopy← E. Touré

81'

A. Nordin← M. Trauco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintReims

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots17

3Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots17

7On Target7

5Off Target7

4Blocked3

11Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

525Total Passes424

437Accurate Passes331

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

Ligue 1: Saint Etienne 1–2 Reims

Reims beat Saint Etienne 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Munetsi (2'), E. Mangala (12'), K. Doumbia (61').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.

Saint Etienne vs Reims — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 1: Saint Etienne 1–2 Reims