Reims 1–0 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Reims

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Saint Etienne

H. Ibrahim 70'

1/24/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Reims46%

×Draw26%

Saint Etienne28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Reims

1.48

Saint Etienne

1.11

Reims creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

1.73

creates per match

1.33

0.90

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Reims

1.73

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Reims

0.90

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reims or draw

72%

Reims or Saint Etienne

74%

Draw or Saint Etienne

54%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

23%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

77%

Reims 2+ goals

43%

Reims 3+ goals

19%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

67%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

30%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

62%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.73 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Reims defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Reims scores more

46%

level

26%

Saint Etienne scores more

28%

Reims at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Kotto

Reims · D

8.2

Match Events

1'

9'

10'

27'

55'

56'

59'

J. Ferreira← C. Lamba

60'

I. Cardona← A. Moueffek

66'

Lucas Stassin

70'

H. Ibrahim

76'

A. Bojang← H. Ibrahim

84'

H. Sekine← T. Diarra

88'

I. Miladinovic← F. Tardieu

88'

J. Duffus← N. El Jamali

90+2'

M. Gbane← K. Nakamura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsSaint

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots15

5Corners2

9Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots15

3On Target5

5Off Target6

4Blocked4

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

358Total Passes504

295Accurate Passes435

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2