Reims 2–0 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Reims

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saint Etienne

N. Mbuku 89'

E. Touré 23' (pen)

12/11/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Auguste-Delaune II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Reims43%

×Draw28%

Saint Etienne30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReimsExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Reims

1.32

Saint Etienne

1.06

Reims creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 87 away

1.11

creates per match

1.10

1.02

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Reims

1.11

Saint Etienne

1.10

allows per match

Reims

1.02

Saint Etienne

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reims+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reims ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reims or draw

70%

Reims or Saint Etienne

72%

Draw or Saint Etienne

57%

Winning margin

Reims wins by 2+

20%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reims 1+ goals

73%

Reims 2+ goals

38%

Reims 3+ goals

15%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

65%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

29%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Reims (draw refunded)

59%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reims at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.02 · 93 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reims attack 1.11 + Saint Etienne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Saint Etienne attack 1.10 + Reims defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reims scores more

43%

level

28%

Saint Etienne scores more

30%

Reims at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

T. Foket

Reims · D

7.9

Match Events

23'

E. TouréPenalty

45+1'

Denis Bouanga

46'

S. Bajić← E. Green

53'

Ghislain Konan

53'

Y. Maçon← Gabriel Silva

54'

Wout Faes

54'

Y. Neyou Noupa← Z. Youssouf

64'

A. Donis← E. Touré

64'

B. Locko← G. Konan

64'

Moreto Cassamá← D. Lopy

67'

Yvann Maçon

74'

N. Mbuku← I. Kebbal

74'

Y. Lhéry← A. Nordin

76'

S. Sissoko← A. Matusiwa

79'

Wahbi Khazri

88'

J. Krasso← M. Trauco

89'

N. Mbuku↳ H. Ekitike

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReimsSaint

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots4

11Corners5

19Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots4

6On Target0

8Off Target2

3Blocked2

12Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

392Total Passes352

326Accurate Passes271

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

6Offsides0