Saint Etienne 1–1 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Saint Etienne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reims

C. Abi 89'

E. Toure 72'

2/20/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Etienne41%

×Draw27%

Reims32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.16

Saint Etienne

1.34

Reims

1.16

Saint Etienne creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 93 away

1.44

creates per match

1.04

1.28

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.44

Reims

1.04

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.28

Reims

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

68%

Saint Etienne or Reims

73%

Draw or Reims

59%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

19%

Reims wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

74%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

39%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

15%

Reims 1+ goals

69%

Reims 2+ goals

32%

Reims 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

56%

Reims (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

Reims away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.44 + Reims defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Reims attack 1.04 + Saint Etienne defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

41%

level

27%

Reims scores more

32%

Saint Etienne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Munetsi

Reims · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

A. Aouchiche← L. Gourna-Douath

46'

A. Nordin← W. Khazri

59'

C. Abi← A. Modeste

59'

M. Doumbia← D. Kutesa

60'

E. Toure← A. Zeneli

72'

E. Toure↳ M. Doumbia

79'

Nathanael Mbuku

79'

Z. Youssouf← M. Camara

80'

M. Drammeh← B. Dia

89'

Moussa Doumbia

89'

C. Abi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintReims

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots4

1Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots4

8On Target2

8Off Target2

3Blocked0

9Inside Box4

10Outside Box0

Passing

48%Possession52%

385Total Passes431

284Accurate Passes327

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1