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Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
A. Boakye 55'
1/17/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne47%
×Draw26%
Clermont Foot26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
1.46
Clermont Foot
1.02

Saint Etienne creates 43% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 98 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
1.77
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.05
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
74%
Saint Etienne or Clermont Foot
74%
Draw or Clermont Foot
53%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
23%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
77%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
43%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
18%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
64%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
27%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
64%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
47%
level
26%
Clermont Foot scores more
26%

Saint Etienne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
T. GuivarchClermont FootClermont Foot · G
8.0

Match Events

55'
A. Boakye↳ L. Stassin
59'
Benjamin Old
67'
F. Diedhiou← A. Camblan
68'
M. Tourraine← I. Coulibaly
68'
V. Nsimba← E. H. Kone
68'
M. Caufriez← J. Gastien
69'
I. Miladinovic← A. Moueffek
81'
Y. Bellache← E. Cantero
88'
D. Appiah← K. Pedro
89'
P. Eymard← N. El Jamali
90+3'
I. Cardona← L. Stassin

Possession

57%Saint

Shots

17Saint

Pass accuracy

50%Saint

Statistics

SaintClermont
Overview
57%Possession43%
17Total Shots11
6Corners4
12Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots11
6On Target5
5Off Target6
6Blocked0
10Inside Box10
7Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
556Total Passes414
481Accurate Passes357
87%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot

Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Boakye (55').

Saint Etienne controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint Etienne.