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Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
I. Sissoko 77'
D. Chambost 56'
7/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Aimé Jacquet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Etienne58%
×Draw20%
Clermont Foot22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Etienne
2.31
Clermont Foot
1.38

Saint Etienne creates 67% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Saint Etienne
2.75
Clermont Foot
1.43

allows per match

Saint Etienne
1.33
Clermont Foot
1.86

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw
78%
Saint Etienne or Clermont Foot
80%
Draw or Clermont Foot
42%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+
36%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals
90%
Saint Etienne 2+ goals
67%
Saint Etienne 3+ goals
40%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
75%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
40%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)
72%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 2.75 + Clermont Foot defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.31

Clermont Foot attack 1.43 + Saint Etienne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Saint Etienne scores more
58%
level
20%
Clermont Foot scores more
22%

Saint Etienne at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
D. Chambost
77'
I. Sissoko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot

Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 22, 2023.

Goals: D. Chambost (56'), I. Sissoko (77').

The match was played at Stade Aimé Jacquet in L'Etrat.